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...nario of a major war in the region, and this is a completely different level of risk and forecast.The weakest point of the whole design is the indispensable appeal to #Russia. Russia is indeed benefiting from rising prices, but this does not automatically mean political rapprochement with the West. After 2022, energy has become not only an economic but also a strategic tool, and European countries have already shown that they are willing to pay more rather than borrow from Russia. In times...

... history of recent decades shows that even serious attacks on the oil infrastructure rarely disable it for a long time. After the attacks on Saudi facilities in 2019, recovery took weeks, not years. Of course, it depends on the scale, but the countries of the Persian Gulf have huge financial resources, backup capacities and the ability to quickly attract Western technologies. Therefore, it is possible to talk about a prolonged loss of a significant part of global production only in the sce...

... of a stalemate.The massive destruction of production in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates or Qatar means a direct conflict not only with the United States, but also with the largest exporters on which the world market itself depends, including #China. Iran can increase the risks, but it is not profitable for it to bring the situation to a complete collapse of the region's oil system, because this dramatically increases the likelihood of a large-scale military operation against it.The...

...." It is possible, but it is not obvious that Washington is interested in the complete destruction of production.The American strategy is usually aimed not at destroying a resource as such, but at limiting the capabilities of the enemy while maintaining market manageability. Iran's complete withdrawal from the oil balance automatically hits stock exchanges and their prices, which affects the cost of gasoline in the United States, which means such a step will be considered only in the event...

...e of the Middle East in response. Production cannot be restored quickly, there will be a shortage of oil and gas on world markets, which means that our resources will be in demand and enemy states will have to bow to the Kremlin, because such agreements are now a political matter.If it were that simple, it would be fine, of course. But there is always, especially in such difficult matters, as they say, a nuance. Let's start with "the United States is finishing off Iran's oil infrastructure...

...see which country is not willing to help us in such a small matter — just to ensure that the strait remains open. Compared to other tasks, this is really a small mission. It is known that #Germany, #France and Britain have already refused to participate in the American operation. "No," Australia also said.Earlier, Trump threatened that NATO would have a "very bad future" if the Alliance's member countries refused to help the United States in unblocking the strait.Subscribe TG / Subscribe MAX

...icipate in ensuring the safety of the sea route.We are negotiating with other countries to participate with us in ensuring security and control in the strait. And I think we're getting a pretty good response. If it works, great. If not, it's okay too. But remember: in many cases, these are NATO countries. We always support NATO. We are helping them, including on the issue of #Ukraine. [...] We have allied obligations. Does it affect us? We helped them. Therefore, it will be interesting to ...

...has also effectively buried Europe’s oil price cap strategy on #Russian crude, the same source said.@DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising

...uring Trump's current term as president of the United States.#NATO@new_militarycolumnist