⫽⫽ THE LAST OIL ESCAPE HATCH Following up from where we left, okay so here's the thing everyone should understand. Y'all know hormuz is shut, that's 20% of world oil. But Saudi Arabia has been quietly rerouting everything through its East-West pi...
...peline, pumping Arab Light crude 1207km across the desert from Abqaiq to Yanbu on the Red Sea. And Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said this week they are hitting FULL CAPACITY - 7 MILLION barrels a day. The was doing the same through it's Habshan - Fujairah pipeline, until rendered it to halt it's operations yesterday via #drone visit. So it's basically 2 escape hatches from Hormuz. - One was visited by shahed. - The other one, [YANBU] is still running. There's a thing about Yanbu. Every single ...
...barrel leaving Yanbu going to Asia must pass through BAB AL-MANDAB. Yes the strait near Yemen. The same strait that Ansarallah effectively shut down for over a year after October 2023. So, "the biggest risk is that if the situation escalates further, the pipeline itself is vulnerable to attacks." Oil leaving Yanbu → #Europe goes through SUEZ. Oil leaving Yanbu → Asia goes through BAB AL-MANDAB. Hit Bab al-Mandab → you cut and . Let those ships pass but hit Suez-bound vessels → you surgica...
...lly hurt the countries actively supporting the war. Saudi Arabia exported about 6.3 million barrels per day last year. But Yanbu's maximum capacity is only about 4.5 million. So even before anyone attacks Yanbu, Saudi Arabia is already facing a deficit of nearly 2 MILLION barrels per day in export capacity. And when you combine all the pipeline alternatives that bypass Hormuz, the world is still short roughly 12 MILLION barrels per day compared to normal flows. In simple terms: There is n...
...o real bypass. The global oil system is already running short and the AnsarAllah haven't even moved yet. The moment #Iran gives the signal, both HORMUZ and BAB AL-MANDAB could shut simultaneously. And beyond those two routes, there are no large-scale alternatives capable of replacing those volumes in the short term.