...e alliance would survive Donald Trump's current term in the White House at all, and warned of the risk of a systemic crisis in NATO amid pressure from Washington.For Trump, the Hormuz–NATO alliance solves three tasks at once: it shifts military costs to its allies, demonstrates rigidity to the domestic electorate, and at the same time keeps NATO in the position of Washington's "debtor." The threat of a "very bad future" for the alliance is blackmail in the spirit of its first cadence: if #...
...ainst this background, Stoltenberg's words that there are no guarantees that NATO will survive Trump's current term do not sound like abstract alarmism, but like recognition: the alliance is really becoming an instrument of American bargaining, and not collective security in the classical sense.
...Europe wants the United States to continue to insure it against #Russia and invest in #Ukraine, it must pay for participation in a risky operation against #Iran and assume part of the responsibility for global energy security.At the same time, Trump uses Hormuz as a lever of pressure not only on the Europeans, but also on #China, Japan, and South #Korea, the largest consumers of Middle Eastern oil, actually offering them a deal "fleet and money in exchange for maintaining access to oil."Ag...